Multivariate and multistep mobile traffic prediction with SLA constraints: A comparative study

Abstract

This paper proposes a new method for predicting downlink traffic volume in mobile networks, aiming to minimize overprovisioning while meeting specified service-level agreement (SLA) violation rates. We introduce a multivariate and multi-step prediction approach and compare four machine learning (ML) architectures: long short-term memory (LSTM), convolutional neural network (CNN), transformer, and light gradient-boosting machine (LightGBM). Our models predict up to 24 steps ahead and are evaluated under both single-step and multi-step conditions. Additionally, we propose parametric loss functions to adhere to SLA violation rate constraints. Our results emphasize the importance of using parametric loss functions to meet SLA constraints. We discovered that LSTM when paired with our custom multivariate feature sets, outperforms the transformer architecture in short-term forecasting up to 4 h ahead. For these short-term predictions, we demonstrate that methods based on domain knowledge, like our custom feature sets combined with simpler models such as LSTM, surpass more complex models like transformers. However, for long-term forecasting (8 to 24 h ahead), transformers outperform all other models. © 2024 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.