RECOVERY PERIOD OF AIR TRANSPORTATION: A FORECAST WITH VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION MODEL

Abstract

Air transport is the primary module of civil aviation and because of its nature, air transport has been simultaneously affected by Pandemics and crises. The influence of COVID-19 was more devastating than the other Pandemics and crises due to its global effect. This effect has continued a long period that still this effect exists now with a slight trend. The aim of this study is to analyse the selected variables that shows the past and future trend of air transportation related to operational and financial status. These variables are the primary ones that can define the countries' general status in air transport. The forecasting results are examined by 9-months forecasting with Vector Error Correction Model. It is forecasted that slightly decreasing trend will proceed in the following 9-months for passenger transportation due to fall and winter seasons. It is forecasted that slightly upward trend will proceed in the following 3-months and slightly decreased in the other 6-months for cargo transportation due to potential economic crisis in 2023. The originality of this paper is the first research related to analyse passenger and freight transportation together with the operational and financial parameters that defined in the sample of data and methodology sections. © 2023 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.