Mapping of the ship collision probability in the strait of istanbul based on ais data

Abstract

Ships in congested waterways are more prone to collision than those in open sea conditions. The overall statistics of maritime accidents are known in most waterways, yet their spatial distribution in detailed maps is not common. The collision probability is mostly determined on route-based methods, however it distorts the spatial traffic distribution. Hereby, a collision model is developed based on molecular collision diameter which uses long-term AIS data to calculate the geometric collision probability. To analyze the maritime accidents, the Strait of Istanbul (SOI) is divided into sectors and further subdivided into cells of each the geometric collision probability is calculated using one-year continuous AIS data. Model results show that the collision probability increases in the narrow passages and in the sharp turns of the SOI. The spatial distribution of accidents in high resolution maps obtained from the sector based approach will be beneficial for stakeholders to take necessary precautions. © 2019 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.